The Numbers Don’t Lie

POSTED: 25 February 2011

The Numbers Don’t Lie

I always say, if all else fails, check the numbers. Between two evenly-matched teams, I’d rather take the “calculated gamble”, so to speak, on those who have the right numbers to back them up.

Based on general numbers, the Aston Villa-Blackburn weekend matchup isn’t the reassuring David-vs-Goliath faceoff every bettor hopes for. Although the figures aren’t identical, the difference isn’t much to feel safe about. Aston Villa stand at 15th place, three above the drop zone; Blackburn are at safer but unimpressive 11th. Villa have an overall 7-9-11 record; Blackburn, a 9-5-13.

Villa’s last 5 games show 2 straight wins, 1 loss and 2 draws. Blackburn, although with a higher ranking, have 1 win, 1 draw, and a 3-loss streak in between.

Things change, however, on a head-to-head showdown. In their last 10 meetings, Villa stole 7 wins; leaving Blackburn with 3 and no draws. A striking fact: in the last match Villa handily shoved Blackburn out of the FA Cup running with a 3-1 win.

Finally, in 10 games, Villa clinched 5 home wins; Blackburn has 2 – a stand-out fact for the next match, set in Aston Villa’s home turf.

The face-off numbers say it all: unless Blackburn come out calling for blood and revenge, I see Aston Villa coming away with a weekend win.

Verdict: Home win